FC Tōkyō vs Nagoya Grampus, J. League 2025 REGULAR SEASON

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J. League · 2025

FC Tōkyō

3 – 1

Full Time

Nagoya Grampus

Wed 26 Feb 2025 · 10:00 UTC Ajinomoto Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 89' Kensuke Nagai

Kei Koizumi 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

FC Tōkyō vs Nagoya Grampus — J. League at Ajinomoto Stadium.

FC Tōkyō 18 games · 37 pts (2026/26)
Nagoya Grampus 18 games · 31 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	18	35
2	Cerezo Osaka FC	18	31
3	Nagoya Grampus	18	31
4	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	18	30
5	Gamba Osaka	18	28
6	Fagiano Okayama FC	18	26
7	Shimizu S-Pulse	18	24
8	Kyoto Sanga FC	18	23
9	V-Varen Nagasaki	18	21
10	Avispa Fukuoka	18	21
11	Kashima Antlers	18	45
12	FC Tōkyō	18	37
13	FC Machida Zelvia	18	37
14	Kawasaki Frontale	18	28
15	Tokyo Verdy	18	28
16	Urawa Red Diamonds	18	25
17	Kashiwa Reysol	18	20
18	Yokohama F·Marinos	18	20
19	FC Mito Holly Hock	18	18
20	JEF United Ichihara Chiba	18	12

Head-to-Head

FC Tōkyō 24 games · Avg 2.3 goals Nagoya Grampus

Last 5 meetings

2025-02-26 FC Tōkyō 3–1 Nagoya Grampus 2024-09-14 FC Tōkyō 4–1 Nagoya Grampus 2024-05-15 Nagoya Grampus 3–1 FC Tōkyō 2023-06-24 FC Tōkyō 2–0 Nagoya Grampus 2023-03-18 Nagoya Grampus 0–0 FC Tōkyō

Recent Form

FC Tōkyō

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Feb	Nagoya Grampus	H	3–1	W
22 Feb	FC Machida Zelvia	H	0–1	L
15 Feb	Yokohama FC	A	1–0	W
08 Dec	Cerezo Osaka FC	H	3–0	W
30 Nov	Jubilo Iwata	A	1–2	L
09 Nov	FC Machida Zelvia	A	0–3	L

Nagoya Grampus

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
26 Feb	FC Tōkyō	A	1–3	L
22 Feb	Vissel Kobe	H	2–2	D
15 Feb	Kawasaki Frontale	A	0–4	L
08 Dec	Yokohama F·Marinos	A	2–0	W
30 Nov	Sagan Tosu FC	H	0–3	L
09 Nov	Kashima Antlers	A	0–0	D

Season Stats

FC Tōkyō		Nagoya Grampus
#12	Position	#3
37	Points	31
18	Played	18
13 / 0 / 5	W / D / L	10 / 0 / 8
55	Scored	46
42	Conceded	44
+13	GD	+2
2.06	PPG	1.72
72%	Win %	56%

Key Stats

54% Both Teams to Score
H2H (24 games)

46% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

22% Clean Sheets
FC Tōkyō this season

28% Clean Sheets
Nagoya Grampus this season

FC Tōkyō are 12th (37 pts). Nagoya Grampus are 3rd (31 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

FC Tōkyō

0-15

–/1

16-30

–/2

31-45

8/–

46-60

2/–

61-75

4/4

76+

3/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Nagoya Grampus

0-15

2/1

16-30

2/4

31-45

5/4

46-60

4/3

61-75

3/1

76+

4/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' The match kicks off with home fans waiting with anticipation for FC Tōkyō to score. At the same time, Nagoya Grampus does not seem to pull back! Let’s get it on!
5' Nagoya Grampus started playing very sharply right from the kick off. However, it slowed down the tempo rapidly by 5.
10' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
15' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 15 minutes.
20' The travelling Nagoya Grampus supporters hardly appreciate their team being pressed down to the backline.
25' Everton needs to be pretty careful with his discipline considering 0 Red cards this season.
30' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
31' GOAL! Keita Yamashita scores on 31. Assisted by Kein Sato
36' Supporters expect more eagerness from Yuya Yamagishi, as he is very good at scoring at Ajinomoto Stadium with 1 goals in the last 1 games.
41' Nagoya Grampus manager makes another effort to make the tables turned. Yuya Asano is hanging Teruki Hara on the field on 41 minute.
46' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
51' Nagoya Grampus is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
56' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
59' What a strike from Kein Sato! The score is 0-2.
61' The supporters are chanting for Marcelo Ryan. He replaces Keita Yamashita on 61 minute.
64' Goal! Keiya Shiihashi scores his 9 goal in 275 matches.
69' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering FC Tōkyō that had 437 games and scored 396 goals.
74' It looks like no one’s ball. Nagoya Grampus is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
75' The supporters are chanting for Kensuke Nagai. He replaces Ryuji Izumi on 75 minute.
80' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Ryuji Izumi suffering a number of foals already.
84' Another change for Nagoya Grampus made on 84 minute. Mateus leaves to be changed by Tsukasa Morishima.
89' The referee calls foul for Kensuke Nagai. He receives a card.
90' It’s gonna be a card for Kei Koizumi.
90' Another change for FC Tokyo made on 90 minute. Kein Sato leaves to be changed by Teruhito Nakagawa.
Another three points for FC Tōkyō.

Lineups

FC Tōkyō Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Rikizo Matsuhashi

Nagoya Grampus Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Kenta Hasegawa

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Diego Oliveira	6
Kensuke Nagai	3
Kasper Junker	3
Diego Oliveira	2
Kensuke Nagai	2
Adailton	1
Sho Inagaki	1
Willian Rocha	1

Head to Head

FC Tōkyō Form

2025-02-26 FC Tōkyō 3–1 Nagoya Grampus W 2025-02-22 FC Tōkyō 0–1 FC Machida Zelvia L 2025-02-15 Yokohama FC 0–1 FC Tōkyō W 2024-12-08 FC Tōkyō 3–0 Cerezo Osaka FC W 2024-11-30 Jubilo Iwata 2–1 FC Tōkyō L 2024-11-09 FC Machida Zelvia 3–0 FC Tōkyō L

Nagoya Grampus Form

2025-02-26 FC Tōkyō 3–1 Nagoya Grampus L 2025-02-22 Nagoya Grampus 2–2 Vissel Kobe D 2025-02-15 Kawasaki Frontale 4–0 Nagoya Grampus L 2024-12-08 Yokohama F·Marinos 0–2 Nagoya Grampus W 2024-11-30 Nagoya Grampus 0–3 Sagan Tosu FC L 2024-11-09 Kashima Antlers 0–0 Nagoya Grampus D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

3.02 FC Tōkyō xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.76 Nagoya Grampus xG

I would bet for: Over 2.5 goals 84% + Both teams to score 78%

Match Result

✓ Correct

FC Tōkyō61% Draw19% Nagoya Grampus20%

Actual: FC Tōkyō win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes78% 0% No22%

Avg goals/match: 4.78

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	98%	2%
± 1.5	95%	5%
± 2.5	84%	16%
± 3.5	69%	31%
± 4.5	51%	49%

Double Chance

FC Tōkyō or Draw

79%

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

39%

FC Tōkyō or Nagoya Grampus

81%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

FC Tōkyō48% Draw32% Nagoya Grampus20%

Actual: FC Tōkyō win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

2 – 1

6.7%

3 – 1

Actual

2 – 2

5.8%

3 – 2

5.7%

1 – 1

5.2%

4 – 1

4 – 2

4.3%

2 – 0

4.1%

1 – 2

3 – 0

3.9%

2 – 3

3.4%

3 – 3

3.4%

Asian Handicap — FC Tōkyō

Handicap	FC Tōkyō covers	Push	Nagoya Grampus covers
-2.5	26%	—	74%
-2	26%	17%	57%
-1.5	43%	—	57%
-1	43%	18%	38%
-0.5	62%	—	38%
+0.5	79%	—	21%
+1	79%	11%	10%
+1.5	90%	—	10%
+2	90%	6%	4%
+2.5	96%	—	4%

Clean Sheet

FC Tōkyō keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

Nagoya Grampus keeps clean sheet

6% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.