Thursday , 2 July 2026

Crewe Alexandra FC vs Derby County FC, FA Cup 2023-24 ROUND 1

FA Cup · 2023-24
Sun 5 Nov 2023 · 14:45 UTC Mornflake Stadium 5,201 HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

Crewe Alexandra FC vs Derby County FCFA Cup at Mornflake Stadium.

Match Details

  • Referee Scott Oldham
  • Assistant 1 Richard Woodward
  • Assistant 2 Karl Buckley (England)

Head-to-Head

1
1
Crewe Alexandra FC 2 games · Avg 4.0 goals Derby County FC

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
05 Nov Derby County FC H 2–2 D
26 Nov Barnsley FC A 0–3 L
05 Nov Leyton Orient FC H 1–0 W
30 Apr Lincoln City FC A 1–2 L
23 Apr Ipswich Town FC H 1–1 D
19 Apr Sheffield Wednesday FC A 0–1 L
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
05 Nov Crewe Alexandra FC A 2–2 D
31 Oct Northampton Town FC H 4–0 W
28 Oct Stevenage FC A 1–3 L
24 Oct Exeter City FC H 2–0 W
21 Oct Shrewsbury Town FC A 0–1 L
07 Oct Cheltenham Town FC A 1–1 D

Key Stats

100% Both Teams to Score
H2H (2 games)
100% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
0% Clean Sheets
Crewe Alexandra FC this season
0% Clean Sheets
Derby County FC this season

Events

Match Events

  • 0' In just a few seconds Mornflake Stadium will turn into a battlefield for Crewe Alexandra FC and Derby County FC.
  • 5' It’s high time Lee Bell made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
  • 10' Supporters expect more eagerness from Nathaniel Mendez-Laing, as he is very good at scoring at Mornflake Stadium with 1 goals in the last 1 games.
  • 15' Spectators do not have much to choose from both teams. The sides had several scoring chances but they still need a bit more than just a sight of a goal.
  • 20' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Louie Sibley made 385 appearances and scored 17 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
  • 25' It looks surprising Derby County FC does not make any changes. Craig Forsyth has some obvious troubles when approaching to the goal.
  • 30' Players seem to put ease on their energy level Spectators hardly appreciate such approach. Teams need to speed up the tempo.
  • 35' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Luke Offord suffering a number of foals already.
  • 40' Crewe Alexandra FC is showing some good football. However, Crewe Alexandra FC are ready to play back every minute. It might result in some problems for the home side. The game will hardly remain goalless.
  • 41' Crewe Alexandra FC is taking the lead after the goal scored by Courtney Baker-Richardson on 41.
  • 46' looks like a favorite considering 0 games won in last 0 matches with its main striker scoring goals.
  • 51' Crewe Alexandra FC is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
  • 54' Goal! Elliott Nevitt scores his 2 goal in 48 matches.
  • 59' The teams are not in a rush to score plenty of goals. It might look strange considering Derby County FC that had 385 games and scored 452 goals.
  • 64' We miss some good tackles and strikes. Is there anyone on the field to put the game back to action?
  • 67' Aaron Rowe has so much to prove this time. He replaces Elliott Nevitt on 67 minute.
  • 68' The whistle greets Craig Forsyth as he departs to be replaced by Eiran Cashin.
  • 73' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 73 minutes.
  • 76' The supporters are chanting for Charlie Colkett. He replaces Lewis Billington on 76 minute.
  • 79' Another substitution for Derby County FC to replace Ryan Nyambe by Louie Sibley on 79 minute.
  • 82' Another change for Crewe Alexandra FC made on 82 minute. Joe White leaves to be changed by Calum Agius.
  • 87' Although teams showed high tempo form the start, they seem to slow down a bit. Both sides really need to catch a fire. Otherwise, we have another goalless match.
  • 89' GOAL! Nathaniel Mendez-Laing scores on 89. Assisted by Kane Wilson
  • The final score is 2-2.

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
1.58 Crewe Alexandra FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.29 Derby County FC xG
I would bet for: Crewe Alexandra FC or Derby County FC 73% + Both teams to score 58%

Match Result

✗ Wrong
Crewe Alexandra FC42% Draw27% Derby County FC31%
Actual: Draw

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes58% 0% No42%
Avg goals/match: 2.87
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 93%
7%
± 1.5 78%
22%
± 2.5 54%
46%
± 3.5 32%
68%
± 4.5 17%
83%

Double Chance

Crewe Alexandra FC or Draw
70%
Draw or Derby County FC
58%
Crewe Alexandra FC or Derby County FC
73%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
Crewe Alexandra FC31% Draw45% Derby County FC24%
Actual: Crewe Alexandra FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
12.5%
2 – 1
8.8%
1 – 0
8%
0 – 0
7.5%
1 – 2
7.2%
2 – 0
7%
0 – 1
6.4%
2 – 2
Actual
0 – 2
4.7%
3 – 1
4.6%
3 – 0
3.6%
1 – 3
3.1%

Asian Handicap — Crewe Alexandra FC

Handicap Crewe Alexandra FC covers Push Derby County FC covers
-2.5 9% 91%
-2 9% 13% 78%
-1.5 22% 78%
-1 22% 21% 57%
-0.5 43% 57%
+0.5 70% 30%
+1 70% 17% 13%
+1.5 87% 13%
+2 87% 9% 5%
+2.5 95% 5%

Clean Sheet

Crewe Alexandra FC keeps clean sheet
28%
Derby County FC keeps clean sheet
21%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.