Thursday , 2 July 2026

Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel, DFB-Pokal 2025-26 LAST 16

DFB-Pokal · 2025-26
Hamburger SV
3 – 5
2 – 4 pen
Full Time
Holstein Kiel
Wed 3 Dec 2025 · 19:45 UTC HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

Hamburger SV vs Holstein Kiel — DFB-Pokal .

Match Details

  • Referee Tobias Welz
19 games this season 🟨 1.2/game ⚽ 5.2 goals/game 🟥 1 total

Head-to-Head

3
Hamburger SV 3 games · Avg 5.0 goals Holstein Kiel
Last 5 meetings
2025-12-03 Hamburger SV 3–5 Holstein Kiel 2024-04-20 Hamburger SV 0–1 Holstein Kiel 2023-11-11 Holstein Kiel 4–2 Hamburger SV

Recent Form

Hamburger SV
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
03 Dec Holstein Kiel H 3–5 L
30 Nov VfB Stuttgart H 2–1 W
22 Nov FC Augsburg A 0–1 L
08 Nov Borussia Dortmund H 1–1 D
02 Nov 1. FC Koln A 1–4 L
28 Oct 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 A 1–0 W
Holstein Kiel
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
03 Dec Hamburger SV A 5–3 W
29 Nov Hertha BSC H 0–1 L
23 Nov 1. FC Kaiserslautern A 1–4 L
09 Nov TSV Fortuna 95 Dusseldorf H 1–0 W
31 Oct SC Preussen Munster A 1–2 L
28 Oct VfL Wolfsburg A 1–0 W

Key Stats

67% Both Teams to Score
H2H (3 games)
67% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Events

Match Events

Lineups

Hamburger SV Lineups

Holstein Kiel Lineups

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

PlayerGoals
Robert Glatzel 2
Steven Skrzybski 1
Finn Porath 1
Benedikt Pichler 1
Jonas Sterner 1
Tom Rothe 1

Head to Head

2025-12-03 Hamburger SV 3–5 Holstein Kiel 2024-04-20 Hamburger SV 0–1 Holstein Kiel 2023-11-11 Holstein Kiel 4–2 Hamburger SV

Hamburger SV Form

2025-12-03 Hamburger SV 3–5 Holstein Kiel L 2025-11-30 Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB Stuttgart W 2025-11-22 FC Augsburg 1–0 Hamburger SV L 2025-11-08 Hamburger SV 1–1 Borussia Dortmund D 2025-11-02 1. FC Koln 4–1 Hamburger SV L 2025-10-28 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 0–1 Hamburger SV W

Holstein Kiel Form

2025-12-03 Hamburger SV 3–5 Holstein Kiel W 2025-11-29 Holstein Kiel 0–1 Hertha BSC L 2025-11-23 1. FC Kaiserslautern 4–1 Holstein Kiel L 2025-11-09 Holstein Kiel 1–0 TSV Fortuna 95 Dusseldorf W 2025-10-31 SC Preussen Munster 2–1 Holstein Kiel L 2025-10-28 VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 Holstein Kiel W

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
4 / 4
1.73 Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
2 Holstein Kiel xG
I would bet for: Hamburger SV or Holstein Kiel 75% + Over 2.5 goals 71%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Hamburger SV33% Draw25% Holstein Kiel42%
Actual: Holstein Kiel win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes71% 0% No29%
Avg goals/match: 3.73
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 96%
4%
± 1.5 88%
12%
± 2.5 71%
29%
± 3.5 51%
49%
± 4.5 32%
68%

Double Chance

Hamburger SV or Draw
58%
Draw or Holstein Kiel
67%
Hamburger SV or Holstein Kiel
75%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct
Hamburger SV27% Draw39% Holstein Kiel34%
Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✗ 3–5 not predicted
3 – 5
Actual
1 – 1
9.1%
1 – 2
8%
2 – 1
7%
2 – 2
6.8%
1 – 3
5.3%
0 – 2
4.9%
2 – 3
4.6%
0 – 1
4.3%
3 – 1
4%
3 – 2
4%
2 – 0
3.7%
0 – 0
3.6%

Asian Handicap — Hamburger SV

Handicap Hamburger SV covers Push Holstein Kiel covers
-2.5 7% — 93%
-2 7% 10% 83%
-1.5 17% — 83%
-1 17% 16% 67%
-0.5 33% — 67%
+0.5 56% — 44%
+1 56% 19% 25%
+1.5 75% — 25%
+2 75% 13% 12%
+2.5 88% — 12%

Clean Sheet

Hamburger SV keeps clean sheet
14% ✓
Holstein Kiel keeps clean sheet
18% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.