Wales vs Italy, 2017
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Overview
Head-to-Head
Recent Form
Date Opponent H/A Score Result 30 Mar Italy H 2–1 W 24 Mar Iceland A 1–0 W 20 Mar Hungary A 0–0 D 17 Mar Austria H 0–1 L 10 Mar Spain A 1–1 D 24 Feb Belgium H 0–1 L Date Opponent H/A Score Result 30 Mar Wales A 1–2 L 24 Mar Belgium H 2–0 W 17 Mar Blyth Town FC A 1–1 D 13 Mar Northern Ireland A 2–2 D 10 Mar Switzerland H 1–2 L 03 Mar Republic of Ireland A 1–1 D Key Stats
40% Both Teams to Score
H2H (5 games)60% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history -
Events
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Lineups
Wales Lineups
Italy Lineups
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H2H
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Predictions
Prediction accuracy2 / 41.3 Wales xGExpected GoalsDixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo1.13 Italy xGI would bet for: Wales or Draw 72% + Under 2.5 goals 56%Match Result
✓ CorrectActual: Wales winBoth Teams to Score
✓ CorrectAvg goals/match: 2.43Actual: Yes — both scoredOver / Under Goals
✗ O/U 2.5Line Over Under ± 0.5 89% 11% ± 1.5 70% 30% ± 2.5 44% 56% ± 3.5 23% 77% ± 4.5 11% 89% Double Chance
Wales or Draw 72%Draw or Italy 56%Wales or Italy 72%Half-Time Result
✗ WrongActual: Wales win at HTCorrect Score
✓ In top 121 – 1 13.9%0 – 0 10.9%1 – 0 10.3%0 – 1 8.8%2 – 1 Actual2 – 0 7.2%1 – 2 7.1%0 – 2 5.5%2 – 2 4.7%3 – 1 3.6%3 – 0 3.1%1 – 3 2.7%Asian Handicap — Wales
Handicap Wales covers Push Italy covers -2.5 6% — 94% -2 6% 12% 82% -1.5 18% — 82% -1 18% 21% 61% -0.5 39% — 61% +0.5 69% — 31% +1 69% 18% 13% +1.5 87% — 13% +2 87% 9% 4% +2.5 96% — 4% Clean Sheet
Wales keeps clean sheet 33% ✓Italy keeps clean sheet 28% ✓Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.