Thursday , 2 July 2026

Southampton FC vs Watford FC, FA Cup 2023-24 ROUND 4

FA Cup · 2023-24
Tue 6 Feb 2024 · 19:45 UTC Saint Mary's 17,844 HT 45' · FT 45'
Sekou Mara 52' 1–0
Sekou Mara 58' 2–0
Che Adams 76' 3–0

Overview

Match Preview

Southampton FC vs Watford FCFA Cup at Saint Mary's.

Match Details

  • Referee Darren Bond
  • Assistant 1 Tim Wood
  • Assistant 2 Bhupinder Gill

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
06 Feb Watford FC H 3–0 W
03 Feb Rotherham United FC A 2–0 W
28 Jan Watford FC A 1–1 D
20 Jan Swansea City AFC A 3–1 W
13 Jan Sheffield Wednesday FC H 4–0 W
06 Jan Walsall FC H 4–0 W
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
06 Feb Southampton FC A 0–3 L
03 Feb Cardiff City FC H 0–1 L
31 Jan Sheffield Wednesday FC A 0–0 D
28 Jan Southampton FC H 1–1 D
20 Jan Bristol City FC A 1–1 D
14 Jan Queens Park Rangers FC A 2–1 W

Key Stats

75% Both Teams to Score
H2H (12 games)
50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
20% Clean Sheets
Southampton FC this season
0% Clean Sheets
Watford FC this season

Goal Timing (This Season)

Southampton FC
0-15
/
16-30
/
31-45
1/
46-60
/
61-75
/1
76+
2/2
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
3 / 4
1.72 Southampton FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.77 Watford FC xG
I would bet for: Southampton FC to win 60% + Under — clean sheet likely 55%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Southampton FC60% Draw24% Watford FC16%
Actual: Southampton FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes45% 0% No55%
Avg goals/match: 2.49
Actual: No — clean sheet

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 90%
10%
± 1.5 71%
29%
± 2.5 45%
55%
± 3.5 24%
76%
± 4.5 11%
89%

Double Chance

Southampton FC or Draw
84%
Draw or Watford FC
40%
Southampton FC or Watford FC
76%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct
Southampton FC40% Draw47% Watford FC13%
Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 0
13.4%
2 – 0
11.9%
1 – 1
11.8%
0 – 0
10.2%
2 – 1
9.1%
3 – 0
Actual
0 – 1
5.4%
3 – 1
5.3%
1 – 2
4.1%
2 – 2
3.6%
4 – 0
2.9%
0 – 2
2.4%

Asian Handicap — Southampton FC

Handicap Southampton FC covers Push Watford FC covers
-2.5 15% 85%
-2 15% 18% 66%
-1.5 34% 66%
-1 34% 25% 42%
-0.5 58% 42%
+0.5 85% 15%
+1 85% 11% 5%
+1.5 95% 5%
+2 95% 4% 1%
+2.5 99% 1%

Clean Sheet

Southampton FC keeps clean sheet
47%
Watford FC keeps clean sheet
19%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.