Thursday , 2 July 2026

Southampton FC vs Leeds United FC, Championship 2023-24 REGULAR SEASON

Championship · 2023-24
Sat 30 Sep 2023 · 11:30 UTC Saint Mary's HT 45' · FT 45'
Adam Armstrong 2' 1–0
William Smallbone 31' 2–0
Adam Armstrong 35' 3–0
3–1 58' Pascal Struijk

Overview

Match Preview

Southampton FC vs Leeds United FCChampionship at Saint Mary's.

Match Details

  • Referee John Brooks
  • Assistant 1 Lee Betts
  • Assistant 2 Akil Howson
3 games this season 🟨 0.0/game 2.7 goals/game

Recent Form

DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
30 Sep Leeds United FC H 3–1 W
23 Sep Middlesbrough FC A 1–2 L
19 Sep Ipswich Town FC H 0–1 L
15 Sep Leicester City FC H 1–4 L
02 Sep Sunderland AFC A 0–5 L
26 Aug Queens Park Rangers FC H 2–1 W
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
30 Sep Southampton FC A 1–3 L
23 Sep Watford FC H 3–0 W
20 Sep Hull City AFC A 0–0 D
17 Sep Millwall FC A 3–0 W
02 Sep Sheffield Wednesday FC H 0–0 D
26 Aug Ipswich Town FC A 4–3 W

Key Stats

44% Both Teams to Score
H2H (9 games)
44% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

Events

Match Events

Lineups

H2H

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
2 / 4
1.43 Southampton FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
1.26 Leeds United FC xG
I would bet for: Southampton FC or Leeds United FC 72% + Both teams to score 55%

Match Result

✓ Correct
Southampton FC41% Draw28% Leeds United FC31%
Actual: Southampton FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct
Yes55% 0% No45%
Avg goals/match: 2.69
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 91%
9%
± 1.5 75%
25%
± 2.5 50%
50%
± 3.5 29%
71%
± 4.5 14%
86%

Double Chance

Southampton FC or Draw
69%
Draw or Leeds United FC
59%
Southampton FC or Leeds United FC
72%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
Southampton FC29% Draw47% Leeds United FC24%
Actual: Southampton FC win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
13.1%
0 – 0
8.7%
1 – 0
8.7%
2 – 1
8.4%
0 – 1
7.5%
1 – 2
7.4%
2 – 0
6.8%
2 – 2
5.4%
0 – 2
5.3%
3 – 1
Actual
3 – 0
3.2%
1 – 3
3.1%

Asian Handicap — Southampton FC

Handicap Southampton FC covers Push Leeds United FC covers
-2.5 7% 93%
-2 7% 12% 81%
-1.5 19% 81%
-1 19% 20% 60%
-0.5 40% 60%
+0.5 68% 32%
+1 68% 18% 14%
+1.5 86% 14%
+2 86% 9% 5%
+2.5 95% 5%

Clean Sheet

Southampton FC keeps clean sheet
29%
Leeds United FC keeps clean sheet
25%

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.