Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls, MLS 2024 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2024

Atlanta United FC

2 – 1

Full Time

New York Red Bulls

Sat 5 Oct 2024 · 23:30 UTC Mercedes-Benz Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 32' John Tolkin

R 66' Dylan Nealis

Y 70' Carlos Coronel

Stian Gregersen 70' Y

Y 70' Sean Nealis

Y 85' Emil Forsberg

Y 90' Noah Eile

Overview

Match Preview

Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls — MLS at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Atlanta United FC 18 games · 12 pts (2026/26)
New York Red Bulls 18 games · 25 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	40
2	Internacional CF Miami	18	38
3	New England Revolution	18	30
4	Chicago Fire FC	17	29
5	New York City FC	18	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	25
9	D.C. United SC	18	23
10	Columbus Crew SC	18	20
11	Orlando City SC	18	20
12	Toronto FC	18	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	16
14	Montreal Impact FC	18	16
15	Atlanta United FC	18	12
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	17	34
17	Los Angeles FC	19	34
18	San Jose Earthquakes	18	33
19	Houston Dynamo	18	32
20	FC Dallas	18	27
21	Real Salt Lake	17	27
22	St. Louis City	18	26
23	Portland Timbers	18	24
24	Seattle Sounders FC	17	24
25	Minnesota United FC	18	24
26	Colorado Rapids SC	18	22
27	Los Angeles Galaxy	19	22
28	San Diego FC	18	21
29	Austin FC	18	17
30	Sporting Kansas City	18	14

Head-to-Head

Atlanta United FC 19 games · Avg 2.2 goals New York Red Bulls

Last 5 meetings

2024-10-05 Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls 2024-09-21 New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FC 2023-06-24 New York Red Bulls 4–0 Atlanta United FC 2023-04-01 Atlanta United FC 1–0 New York Red Bulls 2022-08-17 Atlanta United FC 1–2 New York Red Bulls

Recent Form

Atlanta United FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
05 Oct	New York Red Bulls	H	2–1	W
02 Oct	Montreal Impact FC	H	1–2	L
28 Sep	Philadelphia Union	A	1–1	D
21 Sep	New York Red Bulls	A	2–2	D
18 Sep	Internacional CF Miami	H	2–2	D
14 Sep	Nashville SC	H	0–2	L

New York Red Bulls

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
05 Oct	Atlanta United FC	A	1–2	L
02 Oct	Toronto FC	A	4–1	W
28 Sep	New York City FC	H	1–5	L
21 Sep	Atlanta United FC	H	2–2	D
15 Sep	Chicago Fire FC	A	1–2	L
07 Sep	Sporting Kansas City	H	1–1	D

Season Stats

Atlanta United FC		New York Red Bulls
#15	Position	#8
12	Points	25
18	Played	18
3 / 3 / 12	W / D / L	7 / 4 / 7
19	Scored	29
33	Conceded	39
-14	GD	-10
0.67	PPG	1.39
17%	Win %	39%

Key Stats

37% Both Teams to Score
H2H (19 games)

47% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

11% Clean Sheets
Atlanta United FC this season

16% Clean Sheets
New York Red Bulls this season

Atlanta United FC are 15th (12 pts). New York Red Bulls are 8th (25 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Atlanta United FC

0-15

–/4

16-30

1/3

31-45

1/3

46-60

3/3

61-75

3/6

76+

4/5

■ Scored ■ Conceded

New York Red Bulls

0-15

6/4

16-30

2/1

31-45

5/5

46-60

4/7

61-75

1/5

76+

3/3

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Atlanta United FC

Aleksei Miranchuk

5 G

2 A

New York Red Bulls

Julian Hall	9 G	2 A
Jorge Ruvalcaba	7 G

Events

Match Events

0' The referee blows the starting whistle. The fans are roaring. The teams are ready for the match. Atlanta United FC is hosting New York Red Bulls for another epic battle.
5' It’s high time Rob Valentino made some changes to put the his team’s game back to action.
10' Atlanta United FC is defending very well tonight not leaving a chance for their rivals to get through for a goal.
15' Ronald Hernandez has been relatively quiet despite scoring 3 goals in his last 8 appearances.
20' The 29-year-old Felipe Carballo has been sensational this season — 0 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
25' Atlanta United FC are deployed in a today, looking to exploit space against New York Red Bulls's shape.
30' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
32' John Tolkin is having his name booked by the referee on 32.
37' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Aleksei Miranchuk suffering a number of foals already.
42' Both keepers have barely been tested. Atlanta United FC and New York Red Bulls are cancelling each other out in the centre of the park.
46' Dylan Nealis gets the nod from New York Red Bulls. He replaces Andres Reyes and will look to change the dynamic.
51' The clock is ticking and both teams know a goal could change everything at this point.
56' It looks like no one’s ball. New York Red Bulls is used to counterattacking playing. None of the sides are ready to take the lead.
59' Emil Forsberg is replacing Felipe Carballo for the New York Red Bulls side.
60' The Atlanta United FC bench stirs into life. Derrick Williams is withdrawn and Luis Abram gets his opportunity.
65' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 65 minutes.
66' New York Red Bulls player sees a card in front of him.
70' The referee shows New York Red Bulls player a card on 70.
75' Goal! Aleksei Miranchuk scores his 47 goal in 355 matches.
80' The home supporters are growing impatient. Atlanta United FC must find a spark to ignite this game.
81' A change in the New York Red Bulls ranks — Cameron Harper exits the field as Serge Ngoma enters on 81.
85' Emil Forsberg has been a danger all night but risks an early exit having now seen a card on 85.
85' A change in the Atlanta United FC ranks — Edwin Mosquera exits the field as Tyler Wolff enters on 85.
90' A moment of madness from Noah Eile on 90 minutes earns him a card. New York Red Bulls will be frustrated.
90' The Atlanta United FC manager makes a substitution. Aleksei Miranchuk departs to be replaced by Dax McCarty.
2-1 the final result. New York Red Bulls will be bitterly disappointed.

Lineups

Atlanta United FC Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

4
Luis Abram ↑ 60'
13
Dax McCarty ↑ 90'
30
Nicolas Firmino
22
Josh Cohen
19
Daniel Rios ↑ 85'
28
Tyler Wolff ↑ 85'
24
Noah Cobb
25
Luke Brennan
47
Matthew Edwards

Coach Rob Valentino

New York Red Bulls Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

10
Emil Forsberg ↑ 59'
18
Ryan Meara
12
Dylan Nealis ↑ 46'
11
Elias Manoel ↑ 59'
22
Serge Ngoma ↑ 81'
5
Peter Stroud ↑ 85'
16
Julian Hall
2
Dennis Gjengaar
23
Aidan O'Connor

Coach Sandro Schwarz

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Josef Martinez	5
Daniel Royer	3
Bradley Wright-Phillips	3
Bradley Wright-Phillips	2
Serge Ngoma	2
John Tolkin	2
Frankie Amaya	2
Tim Parker	2

Head to Head

Atlanta United FC Form

2024-10-05 Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls W 2024-10-02 Atlanta United FC 1–2 Montreal Impact FC L 2024-09-28 Philadelphia Union 1–1 Atlanta United FC D 2024-09-21 New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FC D 2024-09-18 Atlanta United FC 2–2 Internacional CF Miami D 2024-09-14 Atlanta United FC 0–2 Nashville SC L

New York Red Bulls Form

2024-10-05 Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls L 2024-10-02 Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red Bulls W 2024-09-28 New York Red Bulls 1–5 New York City FC L 2024-09-21 New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FC D 2024-09-15 Chicago Fire FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls L 2024-09-07 New York Red Bulls 1–1 Sporting Kansas City D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

1.54 Atlanta United FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.84 New York Red Bulls xG

I would bet for: Atlanta United FC or New York Red Bulls 76% + Both teams to score 66%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Atlanta United FC38% Draw24% New York Red Bulls38%

Actual: Atlanta United FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes66% 0% No34%

Avg goals/match: 3.38

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	95%	5%
± 1.5	85%	15%
± 2.5	65%	35%
± 3.5	43%	57%
± 4.5	25%	75%

Double Chance

Atlanta United FC or Draw

62%

Draw or New York Red Bulls

62%

Atlanta United FC or New York Red Bulls

76%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Atlanta United FC25% Draw41% New York Red Bulls34%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

10.5%

1 – 2

8.6%

2 – 1

Actual

2 – 2

6.5%

0 – 2

5.8%

0 – 1

5.6%

1 – 3

5.2%

0 – 0

4.9%

1 – 0

4.6%

2 – 0

4.1%

2 – 3

3 – 1

3.7%

Asian Handicap — Atlanta United FC

Handicap	Atlanta United FC covers	Push	New York Red Bulls covers
-2.5	6%	—	94%
-2	6%	9%	85%
-1.5	15%	—	85%
-1	15%	16%	68%
-0.5	32%	—	68%
+0.5	56%	—	44%
+1	56%	19%	24%
+1.5	76%	—	24%
+2	76%	13%	11%
+2.5	89%	—	11%

Clean Sheet

Atlanta United FC keeps clean sheet

17% ✓

New York Red Bulls keeps clean sheet

22% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.