Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls, MLS 2024 REGULAR SEASON

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MLS · 2024

Atlanta United FC

2 – 1

Full Time

New York Red Bulls

Sat 5 Oct 2024 · 23:30 UTC Mercedes-Benz Stadium HT 45' · FT 45'

Y 32' John Tolkin

R 66' Dylan Nealis

Y 70' Carlos Coronel

Stian Gregersen 70' Y

Y 70' Sean Nealis

Y 85' Emil Forsberg

Y 90' Noah Eile

Overview

Match Preview

Atlanta United FC vs New York Red Bulls — MLS at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Atlanta United FC 14 games · 11 pts (2026/26)
New York Red Bulls 15 games · 22 pts (2026/26)

Standings

#	Team	P	Pts
1	Nashville SC	14	33
2	Internacional CF Miami	15	31
3	Chicago Fire FC	14	26
4	New England Revolution	14	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	20
8	New York City FC	15	19
9	D.C. United SC	15	18
10	Columbus Crew SC	15	16
11	Toronto FC	14	14
12	Montreal Impact FC	14	14
13	Orlando City SC	15	14
14	Atlanta United FC	14	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	7
16	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	14	32
17	San Jose Earthquakes	15	32
18	Real Salt Lake	14	26
19	FC Dallas	15	25
20	Los Angeles FC	15	24
21	Seattle Sounders FC	13	24
22	Houston Dynamo	14	22
23	Minnesota United FC	15	22
24	Los Angeles Galaxy	15	20
25	San Diego FC	15	17
26	Colorado Rapids SC	15	16
27	St. Louis City	14	16
28	Portland Timbers	14	14
29	Austin FC	15	14
30	Sporting Kansas City	14	11

Head-to-Head

Atlanta United FC 18 games · Avg 2.2 goals New York Red Bulls

Last 5 meetings

2024-10-05 Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls 2024-09-21 New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FC 2023-06-24 New York Red Bulls 4–0 Atlanta United FC 2023-04-01 Atlanta United FC 1–0 New York Red Bulls 2022-08-17 Atlanta United FC 1–2 New York Red Bulls

Recent Form

Atlanta United FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
05 Oct	New York Red Bulls	H	2–1	W
02 Oct	Montreal Impact FC	H	1–2	L
28 Sep	Philadelphia Union	A	1–1	D
21 Sep	New York Red Bulls	A	2–2	D
18 Sep	Internacional CF Miami	H	2–2	D
14 Sep	Nashville SC	H	0–2	L

New York Red Bulls

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
05 Oct	Atlanta United FC	A	1–2	L
02 Oct	Toronto FC	A	4–1	W
28 Sep	New York City FC	H	1–5	L
21 Sep	Atlanta United FC	H	2–2	D
15 Sep	Chicago Fire FC	A	1–2	L
07 Sep	Sporting Kansas City	H	1–1	D

Season Stats

Atlanta United FC		New York Red Bulls
#14	Position	#5
11	Points	22
14	Played	15
3 / 2 / 9	W / D / L	6 / 4 / 5
14	Scored	25
23	Conceded	32
-9	GD	-7
0.79	PPG	1.47
21%	Win %	40%

Key Stats

33% Both Teams to Score
H2H (18 games)

44% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

14% Clean Sheets
Atlanta United FC this season

20% Clean Sheets
New York Red Bulls this season

Atlanta United FC are 14th (11 pts). New York Red Bulls are 5th (22 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Atlanta United FC

0-15

–/2

16-30

–/2

31-45

1/1

46-60

2/2

61-75

1/4

76+

1/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

New York Red Bulls

0-15

5/1

16-30

1/1

31-45

3/5

46-60

3/5

61-75

1/2

76+

3/2

■ Scored ■ Conceded

Events

Match Events

0' The match kicks off with home fans waiting with anticipation for Atlanta United FC to score. At the same time, New York Red Bulls does not seem to pull back! Let’s get it on!
5' Noah Eile has been relatively quiet despite scoring 2 goals in his last 248 appearances.
10' Venezuela international Ronald Hernandez has been a key figure this campaign — 0 goals and 0 assists in the Array this season.
15' will be watching from the dugout nervously. His Atlanta United FC side need to improve if they are to claim all three points.
20' A tactical chess match is unfolding here. The question is which manager blinks first.
25' Not even hints on scoring a goal over the last 25 minutes.
30' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
32' John Tolkin has been a danger all night but risks an early exit having now seen a card on 32.
37' Lewis Morgan has been disciplined this evening — perhaps mindful of those 0 cards already picked up this season.
42' Jamal Thiare has been one of the livelier players on the pitch with 0 goals to his name this season.
46' A change in the New York Red Bulls ranks — Andres Reyes exits the field as Dylan Nealis enters on 46.
51' The midfield battle is intense right now. Both Atlanta United FC and New York Red Bulls are fighting for every inch of the pitch.
56' has dominated the recent head-to-head record, winning 0 of the last 0 meetings.
59' The New York Red Bulls manager makes a substitution. Felipe Carballo departs to be replaced by Emil Forsberg.
60' Time for substitution for Atlanta United FC. Derrick Williams is replaced by Luis Abram.
65' Neither side is committing men forward. This has all the hallmarks of a tense, tactical contest.
66' The referee shows New York Red Bulls player a card on 66.
70' Carlos Coronel was booked on 70.
75' Against the run of play, Aleksei Miranchuk has scored! This game has turned on its head.
80' A quiet spell here at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Atlanta United FC seem content sitting deep and soaking up pressure.
81' A tactical swap from New York Red Bulls — Serge Ngoma on, Cameron Harper off on 81 minutes.
85' The referee reaches into his pocket. Out comes the card for Emil Forsberg.
85' Tyler Wolff is replacing Edwin Mosquera for the Atlanta United FC side.
90' The referee has no hesitation. Noah Eile is booked for New York Red Bulls — card on 90.
90' Fresh legs for Atlanta United FC! Dax McCarty comes on to replace Aleksei Miranchuk.
Atlanta United FC celebrates a vital win. Three points that could prove pivotal come season's end.

Lineups

Atlanta United FC Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

4
Luis Abram ↑ 60'
13
Dax McCarty ↑ 90'
30
Nicolas Firmino
22
Josh Cohen
19
Daniel Rios ↑ 85'
28
Tyler Wolff ↑ 85'
24
Noah Cobb
25
Luke Brennan
47
Matthew Edwards

Coach Rob Valentino

New York Red Bulls Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

10
Emil Forsberg ↑ 59'
18
Ryan Meara
12
Dylan Nealis ↑ 46'
11
Elias Manoel ↑ 59'
22
Serge Ngoma ↑ 81'
5
Peter Stroud ↑ 85'
16
Julian Hall
2
Dennis Gjengaar
23
Aidan O'Connor

Coach Sandro Schwarz

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Josef Martinez	5
Daniel Royer	3
Bradley Wright-Phillips	3
Tim Parker	2
Justin Meram	2
Daniel Royer	2
Lewis Morgan	2
Bradley Wright-Phillips	2

Head to Head

Atlanta United FC Form

2024-10-05 Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls W 2024-10-02 Atlanta United FC 1–2 Montreal Impact FC L 2024-09-28 Philadelphia Union 1–1 Atlanta United FC D 2024-09-21 New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FC D 2024-09-18 Atlanta United FC 2–2 Internacional CF Miami D 2024-09-14 Atlanta United FC 0–2 Nashville SC L

New York Red Bulls Form

2024-10-05 Atlanta United FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls L 2024-10-02 Toronto FC 1–4 New York Red Bulls W 2024-09-28 New York Red Bulls 1–5 New York City FC L 2024-09-21 New York Red Bulls 2–2 Atlanta United FC D 2024-09-15 Chicago Fire FC 2–1 New York Red Bulls L 2024-09-07 New York Red Bulls 1–1 Sporting Kansas City D

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

4 / 4

1.47 Atlanta United FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.75 New York Red Bulls xG

I would bet for: Atlanta United FC or New York Red Bulls 75% + Both teams to score 64%

Match Result

✓ Correct

Atlanta United FC38% Draw25% New York Red Bulls37%

Actual: Atlanta United FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes64% 0% No36%

Avg goals/match: 3.22

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	94%	6%
± 1.5	83%	17%
± 2.5	61%	39%
± 3.5	40%	60%
± 4.5	23%	77%

Double Chance

Atlanta United FC or Draw

63%

Draw or New York Red Bulls

62%

Atlanta United FC or New York Red Bulls

75%

Half-Time Result

✓ Correct

Atlanta United FC25% Draw43% New York Red Bulls32%

Actual: Draw at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12

1 – 1

11.2%

1 – 2

8.7%

2 – 1

Actual

2 – 2

6.3%

0 – 1

6.3%

0 – 2

6.1%

0 – 0

5.6%

1 – 0

5.1%

1 – 3

2 – 0

4.3%

2 – 3

3.7%

3 – 1

3.5%

Asian Handicap — Atlanta United FC

Handicap	Atlanta United FC covers	Push	New York Red Bulls covers
-2.5	6%	—	94%
-2	6%	9%	85%
-1.5	15%	—	85%
-1	15%	16%	69%
-0.5	31%	—	69%
+0.5	57%	—	43%
+1	57%	20%	24%
+1.5	76%	—	24%
+2	76%	13%	10%
+2.5	90%	—	10%

Clean Sheet

Atlanta United FC keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

New York Red Bulls keeps clean sheet

24% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.