Milton Keynes Dons FC vs Oxford United FC, FA Cup 2025-26 ROUND 3

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FA Cup · 2025-26

Milton Keynes Dons FC

4 – 5

3 – 4 pen

Full Time

Oxford United FC

Fri 9 Jan 2026 · 19:30 UTC HT 45' · FT 45'

Overview

Match Preview

Milton Keynes Dons FC vs Oxford United FC — FA Cup .

Milton Keynes Dons FC 0 games · 0 pts (2025/26)
Oxford United FC 0 games · 0 pts (2025/26)

Match Details

Referee Paul Howard

Head-to-Head

Milton Keynes Dons FC 8 games · Avg 3.4 goals Oxford United FC

Last 5 meetings

2026-01-09 Milton Keynes Dons FC 4–5 Oxford United FC 2023-02-11 Milton Keynes Dons FC 1–1 Oxford United FC 2022-09-17 Oxford United FC 1–2 Milton Keynes Dons FC 2022-04-19 Oxford United FC 1–0 Milton Keynes Dons FC 2021-02-27 Milton Keynes Dons FC 1–1 Oxford United FC

Recent Form

Milton Keynes Dons FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
09 Jan	Oxford United FC	H	4–5	L
06 Dec	Oldham Athletic AFC	H	3–1	W
01 Nov	Colchester United FC	A	3–2	W
03 Nov	AFC Wimbledon	H	0–2	L
04 Nov	Reading FC	A	2–3	L
07 May	Burton Albion FC	A	0–0	D

Oxford United FC

Date	Opponent	H/A	Score	Result
09 Jan	Milton Keynes Dons FC	A	5–4	W
01 Jan	Ipswich Town FC	A	1–2	L
29 Dec	Swansea City AFC	H	0–1	L
26 Dec	Southampton FC	H	2–1	W
20 Dec	Charlton Athletic FC	A	0–1	L
13 Dec	Preston North End FC	H	1–2	L

Key Stats

75% Both Teams to Score
H2H (8 games)

50% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history

0% Clean Sheets
Milton Keynes Dons FC this season

0% Clean Sheets
Oxford United FC this season

Top Scorers (This Season)

Milton Keynes Dons FC

Joe Tomlinson	2 G
Rushian Hepburn-Murphy	2 G

Events

Match Events

0' Welcome to that hosts another battle between Milton Keynes Dons FC and Oxford United FC.
Full Time. Oxford United FC beats Milton Keynes Dons FC

Lineups

Milton Keynes Dons FC Lineups

Oxford United FC Lineups

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

Player	Goals
Elliot Lee	1
Aaron Collins	1
Andrew Surman	1
Billy Bodin	1
John Mousinho	1
Will Grigg	1
Joseph Mason	1
Matthew Smith	1

Head to Head

Milton Keynes Dons FC Form

2026-01-09 Milton Keynes Dons FC 4–5 Oxford United FC L 2025-12-06 Milton Keynes Dons FC 3–1 Oldham Athletic AFC W 2025-11-01 Colchester United FC 2–3 Milton Keynes Dons FC W 2024-11-03 Milton Keynes Dons FC 0–2 AFC Wimbledon L 2023-11-04 Reading FC 3–2 Milton Keynes Dons FC L 2023-05-07 Burton Albion FC 0–0 Milton Keynes Dons FC D

Oxford United FC Form

2026-01-09 Milton Keynes Dons FC 4–5 Oxford United FC W 2026-01-01 Ipswich Town FC 2–1 Oxford United FC L 2025-12-29 Oxford United FC 0–1 Swansea City AFC L 2025-12-26 Oxford United FC 2–1 Southampton FC W 2025-12-20 Charlton Athletic FC 1–0 Oxford United FC L 2025-12-13 Oxford United FC 1–2 Preston North End FC L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy

2 / 4

1.81 Milton Keynes Dons FC xG

Expected Goals

Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo

1.73 Oxford United FC xG

I would bet for: Milton Keynes Dons FC or Oxford United FC 75% + Both teams to score 69%

Match Result

✗ Wrong

Milton Keynes Dons FC39% Draw25% Oxford United FC36%

Actual: Oxford United FC win

Both Teams to Score

✓ Correct

Yes69% 0% No31%

Avg goals/match: 3.54

Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✓ O/U 2.5

Line	Over	Under
± 0.5	96%	4%
± 1.5	87%	13%
± 2.5	68%	32%
± 3.5	47%	53%
± 4.5	28%	72%

Double Chance

Milton Keynes Dons FC or Draw

65%

Draw or Oxford United FC

61%

Milton Keynes Dons FC or Oxford United FC

75%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong

Milton Keynes Dons FC31% Draw41% Oxford United FC28%

Actual: Milton Keynes Dons FC win at HT

Correct Score

✗ 4–5 not predicted

4 – 5

Actual

1 – 1

9.9%

2 – 1

7.9%

1 – 2

7.6%

2 – 2

6.8%

2 – 0

4.8%

3 – 1

4.7%

1 – 0

4.6%

0 – 1

4.4%

0 – 2

4.4%

1 – 3

4.4%

0 – 0

4.3%

3 – 2

4.1%

Asian Handicap — Milton Keynes Dons FC

Handicap	Milton Keynes Dons FC covers	Push	Oxford United FC covers
-2.5	9%	—	91%
-2	9%	12%	79%
-1.5	21%	—	79%
-1	21%	18%	61%
-0.5	39%	—	61%
+0.5	63%	—	37%
+1	63%	17%	19%
+1.5	81%	—	19%
+2	81%	11%	8%
+2.5	92%	—	8%

Clean Sheet

Milton Keynes Dons FC keeps clean sheet

18% ✓

Oxford United FC keeps clean sheet

17% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.