Thursday , 2 July 2026

Sao Paulo FC vs Grêmio FBPA, Serie A 2025 REGULAR SEASON

Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A · 2025
Sao Paulo FC
2 – 1
Full Time
Grêmio FBPA
Sun 18 May 2025 · 00:00 UTC Morumbi HT 45' · FT 45'
Y 4' Mathias Villasanti
Pablo Maia 30' Y
Luciano 45' Y
Y 64' Jemerson
Y 65' Dodi
Y 79' Tiago Volpi
Oscar 86' Y
Rafael Monteiro 90' Y

Overview

Match Preview

Sao Paulo FC vs Grêmio FBPA — Serie A at Morumbi.

Standings

# Team P Pts
1 SE Palmeiras 18 41
2 CR Flamengo 17 34
3 Fluminense FC 18 31
4 CA Paranaense 18 30
5 RB Bragantino 18 29
6 EC Bahia 17 26
7 Coritiba FBC 18 26
8 Sao Paulo FC 18 25
9 CA Mineiro 18 24
10 SC Corinthians Paulista 18 24
11 Cruzeiro EC 18 24
12 Botafogo FR 17 22
13 EC Vitoria 17 22
14 SC Internacional 18 21
15 Santos FC 18 21
16 Grêmio FBPA 18 21
17 CR Vasco da Gama 18 20
18 Clube do Remo 18 18
19 Mirassol FC 17 16
20 Chapecoense AF 17 9

Head-to-Head

6
4
7
Sao Paulo FC 17 games · Avg 2.2 goals Grêmio FBPA
Last 5 meetings
2025-05-18 Sao Paulo FC 2–1 Grêmio FBPA 2024-12-01 Grêmio FBPA 2–1 Sao Paulo FC 2024-07-17 Sao Paulo FC 1–0 Grêmio FBPA 2023-10-21 Sao Paulo FC 3–0 Grêmio FBPA 2023-06-04 Grêmio FBPA 2–1 Sao Paulo FC

Recent Form

Sao Paulo FC
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
18 May Grêmio FBPA H 2–1 W
11 May SE Palmeiras A 0–1 L
03 May Fortaleza EC H 0–0 D
26 Apr Ceará SC A 1–1 D
20 Apr Santos FC H 2–1 W
16 Apr Botafogo FR A 2–2 D
Grêmio FBPA
DateOpponentH/A ScoreResult
18 May Sao Paulo FC A 1–2 L
10 May RB Bragantino H 1–1 D
04 May Santos FC H 1–0 W
27 Apr EC Vitoria A 1–1 D
20 Apr SC Internacional H 1–1 D
16 Apr Mirassol FC A 1–4 L

Season Stats

Sao Paulo FC Grêmio FBPA
#8 Position #16
25 Points 21
18 Played 18
7 / 4 / 7 W / D / L 5 / 6 / 7
23 Scored 20
20 Conceded 23
+3 GD -3
1.39 PPG 1.17
39% Win % 28%

Key Stats

47% Both Teams to Score
H2H (17 games)
53% Over 2.5 Goals
H2H history
28% Clean Sheets
Sao Paulo FC this season
39% Clean Sheets
Grêmio FBPA this season

Sao Paulo FC are 8th (25 pts). Grêmio FBPA are 16th (21 pts).

Goal Timing (This Season)

Sao Paulo FC
0-15
3/–
16-30
2/3
31-45
1/2
46-60
–/3
61-75
2/2
76+
4/4
■ Scored ■ Conceded
Grêmio FBPA
0-15
–/–
16-30
–/–
31-45
2/2
46-60
2/2
61-75
2/3
76+
–/–
■ Scored ■ Conceded

Top Scorers (This Season)

Sao Paulo FC
Luciano 6 G 1 A
Jonathan Calleri 6 G 1 A
Ferreira 4 G
Grêmio FBPA
Carlos Vinicius 9 G

Events

Match Events

  • 0' The match kicks off with home fans waiting with anticipation for Sao Paulo FC to score. At the same time, Grêmio FBPA does not seem to pull back! Let’s get it on!
  • 4' Gremio FBPA receives a card for a hard tackle on 4.
  • 9' The crowd applauds Marcos Antonio as he leaves the pitch. Pablo Maia steps in for Sao Paulo FC.
  • 14' It is a cagey affair so far. Sao Paulo FC in their trying to find a way past Grêmio FBPA's compact .
  • 19' Sao Paulo FC are deployed in a today, looking to exploit space against Grêmio FBPA's shape.
  • 24' The 27-year-old Nahuel Ferraresi has been sensational this season — 1 goals and 0 assists is a remarkable return.
  • 29' The referee has had an easy afternoon — neither side has been overly physical in the tackle.
  • 30' Pablo Maia is having his name booked by the referee on 30.
  • 35' Over 35 minutes have gone by without a meaningful attack. The supporters want more.
  • 37' The deadlock is broken! Alexander Aravena gets on the scoresheet on 37 minutes.
  • 42' While there is no rush on the pitch, let’s have a look at some stats. Luciano made 386 appearances and scored 63 goals. He is very likely to score a goal today.
  • 45' It’s gonna be a card for Luciano.
  • 46' Fresh legs for Sao Paulo FC! Lucca Marques comes on to replace Pablo Maia.
  • 49' GOAL! Robert Arboleda scores on 49. Assisted by Enzo Diaz
  • 54' Grêmio FBPA have won 383 goals from 326 games. They will be desperate to add to that tally today.
  • 59' Jose Sabino has been relatively quiet despite scoring 8 goals in his last 284 appearances.
  • 62' Another substitution for Gremio FBPA to replace Joao Pedro by Ronald on 62 minute.
  • 64' Jemerson picks up a card and will need to be extremely careful for the remainder of this match.
  • 65' The referee shows Gremio FBPA player a card on 65.
  • 70' The referee is likely to let players tackle, as he already missed some meaty challenges during opening seconds. He is still to establish what should not be done by the players and what is acceptable on the pitch. It’s going to be a tough game for Lucas Ferreira suffering a number of foals already.
  • 73' Gremio FBPA make a change. Alexander Aravena trudges off to be replaced by Francis Amuzu on 73 minutes.
  • 78' Spectators are craving for more action. Both teams play very cautiously. They need to put some more energy.
  • 79' That is a card for Gremio FBPA. Tiago Volpi will be fuming at that decision.
  • 84' Sao Paulo FC looks like a favorite considering 1 games won in last 1 matches with its main striker scoring 0 goals.
  • 85' Andre Silva has been a constant threat and now delivers with a goal on 85 minutes.
  • 86' The referee has no hesitation. Oscar is booked for Sao Paulo FC — card on 86.
  • 86' A change in the Gremio FBPA ranks — Miguel Monsalve exits the field as Matias Arezo enters on 86.
  • 88' The Sao Paulo FC manager makes a substitution. Lucas Ferreira departs to be replaced by Cedric.
  • 90' Controversy at the stadium! Rafael Monteiro argues furiously but the card stands.
  • 90' Fresh legs for Sao Paulo FC! Damian Bobadilla comes on to replace Oscar.
  • Hope, you loved the show. Another epic battle is over with the score 2-1.

Lineups

Sao Paulo FC Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Luis Zubeldía

Grêmio FBPA Lineups

Starting XI

Bench

Coach Mano Menezes

H2H

H2H Top Scorers

PlayerGoals
Everton 3
Luciano 2
Franco Cristaldo 2
Luciano 2
Everton 2
Carlos Vinicius 2
Reinaldo 1
Vitor 1

Head to Head

2025-05-18 Sao Paulo FC 2–1 Grêmio FBPA 2024-12-01 Grêmio FBPA 2–1 Sao Paulo FC 2024-07-17 Sao Paulo FC 1–0 Grêmio FBPA 2023-10-21 Sao Paulo FC 3–0 Grêmio FBPA 2023-06-04 Grêmio FBPA 2–1 Sao Paulo FC

Sao Paulo FC Form

2025-05-18 Sao Paulo FC 2–1 Grêmio FBPA W 2025-05-11 SE Palmeiras 1–0 Sao Paulo FC L 2025-05-03 Sao Paulo FC 0–0 Fortaleza EC D 2025-04-26 Ceará SC 1–1 Sao Paulo FC D 2025-04-20 Sao Paulo FC 2–1 Santos FC W 2025-04-16 Botafogo FR 2–2 Sao Paulo FC D

Grêmio FBPA Form

2025-05-18 Sao Paulo FC 2–1 Grêmio FBPA L 2025-05-10 Grêmio FBPA 1–1 RB Bragantino D 2025-05-04 Grêmio FBPA 1–0 Santos FC W 2025-04-27 EC Vitoria 1–1 Grêmio FBPA D 2025-04-20 Grêmio FBPA 1–1 SC Internacional D 2025-04-16 Mirassol FC 4–1 Grêmio FBPA L

Predictions

Prediction accuracy
1 / 4
1.59 Sao Paulo FC xG
Expected Goals
Dixon-Coles · Bivariate Poisson · Neg. Binomial · Elo
0.91 Grêmio FBPA xG
I would bet for: Markets are evenly balanced — no clear value pick.

Match Result

✓ Correct
Sao Paulo FC53% Draw26% Grêmio FBPA21%
Actual: Sao Paulo FC win

Both Teams to Score

✗ Wrong
Yes48% 0% No52%
Avg goals/match: 2.5
Actual: Yes — both scored

Over / Under Goals

✗ O/U 2.5
Line Over Under
± 0.5 90%
10%
± 1.5 71%
29%
± 2.5 45%
55%
± 3.5 25%
75%
± 4.5 12%
88%

Double Chance

Sao Paulo FC or Draw
79%
Draw or Grêmio FBPA
47%
Sao Paulo FC or Grêmio FBPA
74%

Half-Time Result

✗ Wrong
Sao Paulo FC36% Draw48% Grêmio FBPA16%
Actual: Grêmio FBPA win at HT

Correct Score

✓ In top 12
1 – 1
12.8%
1 – 0
12.1%
0 – 0
10.3%
2 – 0
10%
2 – 1
Actual
0 – 1
6.5%
3 – 0
5.2%
1 – 2
5.2%
3 – 1
4.9%
2 – 2
4.2%
0 – 2
3.3%
3 – 2
2.3%

Asian Handicap — Sao Paulo FC

Handicap Sao Paulo FC covers Push Grêmio FBPA covers
-2.5 12% — 88%
-2 12% 16% 72%
-1.5 28% — 72%
-1 28% 24% 48%
-0.5 52% — 48%
+0.5 80% — 20%
+1 80% 13% 7%
+1.5 93% — 7%
+2 93% 5% 2%
+2.5 98% — 2%

Clean Sheet

Sao Paulo FC keeps clean sheet
41% ✓
Grêmio FBPA keeps clean sheet
21% ✓

Predictions are statistical estimates based on season form, H2H history, and a Poisson model. Not financial advice.